Estimation of Shape of Fertility Pattern Considering Non-homogeneous Poisson Process

Data collected through demographic surveys provide complete as well as truncated birth history, which may be a five, six or seven year period prior to the survey date. When past fertility rates are well documented and one is interested only in the current trend of fertility, which is highly affected by high contraceptive prevalence; data based on truncated birth history may be suitable and economical. However, there is an earnest need for developing suitable analytical tools for analysing such types of data. In the present study, we have used an index in different age segment of female based on a model suggested by Lawless (1987) and also discussed its property. The index explains the shape of the changing pattern of current fertility experience for the data considered in this study. The data for the analysis have been taken from first and third round of National Family Health Survey of Uttar Pradesh. The findings reveal that education, age, religion/caste and place of residence are strong co-variates of fertility regulation.