Understanding the Fertility Convergence of Migrant Generations

In order to understand the changing fertility of migrant generations, and its impact on destination countries, previous research has attempted to test migrant fertility convergence. However, the existing literature suffers from numerous conceptual and methodological problems. This paper demonstrates these weaknesses, proposes a new conceptual framework, and then assesses the convergence of migrant generations towards native fertility levels. Completed fertility is estimated for different generations of the UK population using count regression and survey estimation techniques. Unlike previous research, this allows hypotheses to be isolated, and avoids results being confounded due to birth timing differentials.

The results show a narrowing of fertility differentials between migrant and natives for more recent birth cohorts, suggesting fertility adaptation for the first and second generation. However, there is considerable variation by country of origin. Comparisons between generations, for men and women, show evidence of adaptation for Old Commonwealth migrants (and Jamaican women), and cultural entrenchment for Indian and Pakistani migrants. To conclude, the paper discusses the value of this method for informing population projections, and shows the likely influence of these fertility convergence patterns on UK fertility.