Low Fertility in the USSR/Russia: Tempo or Quantum? (Testing Theoretical Explanations)

Since late 1980s Russia has experienced a steep decline of fertility. The nadir of it was reached in 1999, right after the default, with the total fertility rate reaching the low of 1.17. In academic community there is a debate of what this trend is attributed to. Some scholars link it with the postponed effect of the population policy that was implemented in the former USSR in the 1980s. Others make a claim that Russia is currently on the modernization path and, similarly to the countries of Western Europe, is undergoing the second demographic transition.
Both explanations are related to the tempo compound of the fertility process. In the paper I provide a detailed analysis of why these two explanations account for only a small part of the phenomenon of the steep decline of fertility.
The analysis led to conclusion that tempo effect on the decline of fertility in Russia is very limited. I elaborate on the reason that, most likely, is the major cause of the low fertility in the country. That is deterioration of the standards of living, collapse of national currency, irregularity in paying salary that was typical for the 1990’s and other economic factors. In this analysis I made an attempt to divorce the purely economic factor from the factor described as the deterioration of the “greenhouse effect”.