How well has China's family planning policy worked

China has the world’s most stringent family planning policy with integrated, usually coercive approach to implement it. However, according to China’s 2005 National 1% Population Survey, the national rate of unauthorized births averaged at 18.6% over the last 20 years. How well has China's family planning policy worked? What are the causes for noncompliant fertility behaviors? This paper studies the patterns and determinants of unauthorized fertility behaviors in China from macro-, meso- and micro-perspectives using the 2005 population survey data and logistic regression analysis. Results show that the rate of unauthorized births differs considerably across China and between policy types. Rural one-child policy areas had the rate as high as 37.7%, contrasting to a rate of 12.6% in urban one-child policy areas. Strong son preference is the main and direct factor to bring about the resistance to birth control. While socioeconomic development contributes to quelling resistance to the family planning program, the relationship is not simply linear. Family income has a U-shape effect on the probability of unauthorized fertility behaviors, and many individual characteristics like education and age at first birth also have significant influence on the risk of unauthorized births. Theoretical and policy implications are also discussed.