Temporal and spatial estimation of adult mortality for small areas of Brazil

This paper aims to study the evolution of adult mortality in small areas in Brazil from 1980 to 2010. We use 45q15 as a summary measure of adult mortality across small areas in Brazil. In order to produce the estimates, we propose a methodological approach that combines death distribution methods (DDM) to indirect standardization and Bayesian statistics, in order to produce more reliable estimates of adult mortality for small areas. We focus on adult mortality because there are much more studies on infant and child mortality for sub-national population using indirect demographic techniques (Souza, Hill and Dal Poz, 2010; Castro and Simões, 2009). The studies on child and infant mortality are also showing a convergence of levels across regions in Brazil, thus the main changes in life expectancy in recent years should be explained by changes and variation in adult mortality levels.