Nagaland’s Demographic Somersault: An Empirical Investigation

The population of Nagaland, a state in North East India, decreased during 2001-2011, after growing at abnormally high rates during the past few decades. This is the first time after 1941-1951 that a state in India has witnessed an absolute decline in population. In light of this, the paper examines the census population estimates for internal consistency and also attempts to validate them using information on birth and death rates from other demographic surveys and information on gross school enrolment and electorate. The paper also checks if illegal immigration and politically-motivated manipulation could explain the discrepancies. The paper shows that the Census substantially overestimated population during 1981-2001. While the discrepancy in the 1991 Census could possibly be accounted for mostly by illegal immigrants from two neighbouring countries, a substantial portion of the discrepancy in the 2001 Census could possibly be attributed to deliberate inflation of population figures aimed at avoiding potential loss of seats due to the impending delimitation of electoral constituencies. Since the Census and the surveys that use it as a sampling frame are the bedrock of development planning in India, the findings question the Indian state’s institutional capacity to design empirically-informed policies.