Multi-State Back-Projection of the World Population by Age, Sex and Education for 2010-1960: Method, Data, Validation

The paper presents a reconstruction of educational attainments by sex, five-year age groups, and six levels of education from 2010 to 1960 in 170 countries, based on a multi-state back-projection method that takes into account migration and mortality differentials by gender and age group. We discuss the methodology and validation of results against the available empirical data and discuss the methodological advantages as compared to other existing databases of past educational attainment. We also outline additional possibilities of still further-reaching back-projection that would cover most of the 20th century for a reduced number of countries and education categories. The database will enable a better understanding of the manifold social and private returns to education and a more accurate population forecasting.