Demography and Disaster in a Shrinking Region: Assessing the Local Impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011

This paper presents an overview of the disasters of 11 March 2011, focusing on their regional and local contexts, and an assessment of recovery plans. In doing so, it illuminates problems in the planning and reconstruction process, and develops out of these some tentative prognoses. The paper shows that before the disaster the Tōhoku region was already ageing, depopulating, and declining in vitality. Via a case study of two shrinking communities that endured the full force of the tsunami the article shows that there were wide differentials in settlements’ experience of the events according to their geographical and demographic circumstances. The paper then provides a brief analysis of post-disaster reconstruction plans. Although plans show commendable ambition in seeking to rebuild shattered communities, there is a danger of creating unrealistic expectations in settlements where ageing and depopulation appear to be accelerating.