Fertility decline in Uruguay (1996 – 2011). Quantum and tempo effects in a middle-income country with below replacement fertility

Fertility decline below replacement level is a widely extended phenomenon in many countries. In Uruguay, the situation is rather peculiar: it is a middle income Latin American country whose population dynamics is similar to that of Western European countries (below replacement fertility and advanced population aging). The purpose of this paper is to study the profile of the fertility decline in Uruguay by using estimates which have not been used in the past. Mainly, by decomposing tempo and quantum effects in period fertility indicators, including analysis by birth order. The aim is to understand to which extent the decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) can be attributed to the fertility level and to which extent to the fertility calendar. Our results show a sustained decline of the fertility quantum as estimated by the conventional TFR, due to a tempo effect during the economic crisis years (2000-2003) that continued its trend even when this tempo effect had finished, situating Uruguayan fertility below replacement. We discuss the relevance of the public use of the TFR along with adjusted measures, in order to provide more accurate evidence for policy making in LAC countries.