Societal turbulence and demographic response in Central Asia: Ethnic-specific fertility trends in Kyrgyzstan

In our study we employ event-history analysis to examine ethnic-specific fertility trends in Kyrgyzstan – one of the post-Soviet states in Central Asia. We estimate indices of first- and higher-order births for a period in the recent history of Kyrgyzstan that was characterized by economic and socio-political instability. We complement the fertility analysis with the analysis of first marriage. The study is based on retrospective survey data collected in 2011/12. Our results reveal profound ethnic differences in both fertility and marriage dynamics, which we interpret as an outcome of differential demographic responses to the generalized societal crisis that followed the collapse of the former USSR and post-crisis economic recovery.