The Stable Bounded Model of Fertility and Time

The Stable Bounded Model of Fertility and Time, is a mathematical model that provides theoretical elements and specific applications in order to minimize the possible errors that can occur in the process of projecting total fertility rate through time. The model generates scientific demographic knowledge to estimate the value of the stability of the total fertility rate (TFR), by the method of Quantities Change and Converging Autoregressive Processes. It also offers elements to find the function that best fits the observed data of TFR and stabilizing in the future in the estimated value by the method of Separable Differential. The model is a new methodology for projecting fertility, which provides reliable estimates in the short, medium and long term and different solutions to the problems of the current methodology used to project the level of fertility. Model is applied in countries where TFR stability has already happened, in order to compare the prediction of stability of model with the real value observed in these countries. Also, is applied in countries where has not happened, in order to project the TFR until 2050.