An Assessment of DHS Estimates of Fertility and Under-Five Mortality

DHS surveys are the main source of estimates and analyses of fertility and under-five mortality in developing countries. All of these estimates and analyses are based on assumptions about the underlying accuracy of the events and dates in the birth histories. The main concerns of the proposed paper are whether the assumptions are valid and the sensitivity of various measures and analyses to deviations from the assumed accuracy. Three potential weaknesses in the data can be identified: the representativeness of the respondents and the accuracy of their reported ages; possible omission of births in the birth history; and systematic displacement of events. Each of these possible sources of distortion will be examined with statistical methods, building primarily on the leverage provided by multiple surveys in the same country. The second part of the assessment concerns the impact of errors on key outcomes. Those outcomes will be specified in advance and will include measures of levels and trends in rates such as the TFR and neonatal mortality rate and coefficients in statistical models.