REPRODUCTIVE INTENTIONS AND REALIZED FERTILITY: THE LINKAGE

The present research proposes to provide a conceptual framework linking the antecedent variables that affect reproductive intentions, which in turn, ultimately affect fertility through its proximate determinants (intermediate variables). Such an exercise would help to answer questions like how people construct their family size preferences and intentions to have ( or not have) a child, how strongly it affects fertility behaviour at the micro and macro level, is there a significant gap between intended and realized fertility, etc. The study also aims to examine the impact of macro-level factors on micro level decision making and behaviour, so as to understand the implications for policy. The proposed conceptualization has been tested at the macro and micro level, in a developing country like India, which has witnessed a substantial fall in fertility, despite strong traditional values like son preference, during the last two decades. The availability of data from three rounds of National Family Health Surveys (NFHS) conducted during 1992-93, 1998-99 and 2005-06 across all the states in India provides a unique opportunity to undertake this exercise over time.