The own–children estimates of fertility applied to the 2011 Iran Census and the 2010 Iran-MIDHS: An evaluation

The own-children method is a reverse-survival technique to estimate fertility measures using census or survey data. Although the method has been developed in the 1960s, it is still a useful method for analysing fertility measures as it provides single-year estimates of fertility for 15 years prior to a census. This paper presents the fertility trends in Iran during 1997 and 2011 derived from the 2010 IrMIDHS and the 2011 Census, and examines the validity of the own-children method of fertility estimates. The results are assessed by a detailed investigation of mortality assumptions, the presence of non-own children, and age misreporting. ASFRS and TFRs are estimated for Iran by area of residence, province, and district. The fertility estimates obtained alternatively from two matching procedures (using relationship to head of household and mothers’ line number) are investigated to see the accuracy of the results. The OCM estimates are also compared with those obtained from other direct and indirect methods. The results show consistency between the own-children estimates obtain from the two data sources as well as from the two matching procedure. The TFR for 2011 is estimated to be around 1.75 indicating a rather slow decline in recent years. Our district level fertility estimates shed light on the future of fertility in Iran.