Cohort Variability in Remaining Life Span at Retirement Age: Evidence from OECD Countries, Russia and Taiwan

This paper investigates the variability of life span at retirement age in 28 developed and transition countries. We analyze trends in cohort mortality for selected OECD countries, Russia and Taiwan and predict life expectancy and inequality at age 60. We find that the average and the standard deviation of (remaining) life span are increasing in all countries but Russia. Average life span tends to increase more rapidly than the standard deviation, resulting in lower levels of relative inequality. We forecast that the life span distribution will continue to shift out and widen. Across birth cohorts 1930-1960, we predict increasing relative inequality in Russia and among Japanese women. In other countries, and among Japanese men, we predict lower relative inequality. The declines are expected to be particularly pronounced among men and in Western Europe. We discuss the findings in the context of the debate on limits to longevity and public pension reform.