Multiple forecast for deaths by Road Traffic Injuries in Mexico City, 2011-2015.

The deaths by Road Traffic Injuries (RTI) are a serious health public problem in many regions of the world, mainly in developing countries; nevertheless, is a topic no enough studying by the Demography. Moreover, many approach not consider the phenomenon`s heterogeneity and uncertainty, so this paper studies the cause of the death trough a quite approach very used in the economic field: the multiple time series model. This methodology is not quite used in demographic analysis but it can be really useful. This paper pretends to analyze and forecast the deaths by RTI in Mexico City in a five-year term (2011-2015), recognizing the RTI´s heterogeneous in the geographic area, i.e., the analysis will make for each concentric ring are made up the city. We use the Vector Autoregressive models in the forecasting of the deaths by RTI. The expected findings are the RTI is a quite heterogeneous phenomenon thorough the concentric rings; the forecast will be very close to real future observations. We want to motivate to demographic specialists to use stochastic tools like this, because they have a lot of potential in the study of many demographical variables.