The Decline in Non-Numeric Desired Family Size: A Cross-Regional Analysis

This paper examines changes over time in the proportion of women's non-numeric responses to questions about desired family size. Such responses have often been interpreted through the lens of classical demographic transition theory, as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered into the "calculus of conscious choice" (Coale 1973:65). Yet non-numeric desired family size has rarely been investigated in a cross-national framework, and never across time. Thus we know little about the processes underlying changes in these responses. This study uses over 15 years of DHS data from 33 countries representing three world regions. Taking a multi-level modeling approach, we use country- and individual-level indicators to examine the factors associated with non-numeric IFS. We then examine how the relationship between non-numeric IFS and individual- and country-level predictors changes over time. Results suggest that education and knowledge of contraception have the most salient associations with non-numeric IFS; with both being negatively associated with this type of response. While the overall effect of education remains consistently strong over time, we find evidence to suggest the the association between non-numeric responses and knowledge of modern contraception decreases over time.