POPULATION AGEING AND INTERGENERATIONAL CONSTELLATIONS IN EUROPE: EVIDENCE FROM MACRO-LEVEL TRENDS 1950–2100

This paper explores how long-term trends in demographic ageing shape interdependencies between generations. Our aim is to map changes in generational structure of the population in Europe and its major regions since the mid-20th century, and based on demographic projections, to cast light on the future developments until the end the of the 21st century. The data for the study are extracted from the database of UN Population Division. The paper builds on analytical approach developed by Golini and Iacoucucci who derived a series of intergenerational dependency and support measures from the age structure of the population. The results show a marked increase in the „height“ and top-heaviness of the generational structure. Particularly large increases in the relative size of older and middle-aged generations lend support to the notion that multigenerational ties sharply increase their importance as the structure of the population adjusts to longer lives and low fertility. The analysis reveals diverse outcomes for the younger and middle-age adults who provide the bulk of intergenerational support. In medium-term, the shift towards vertically extended and increasingly top-heavy generational structure will persist, irrespective of the projection scenario. With regard more distant future, the path of fertility trends appears crucial.