Projection of Child Mortality for India through Bayesian Approach

During last two decades India has moderate reduction of child mortality which is an important measure of population health. It is frequently watched by demographers to determine how rapidly moving. However, most of its projection techniques are still based on conventional approach which ignores prior information. This suggests performing Bayesian analysis for projecting Indian child mortality rate to incorporate prior information. Our method of illustration includes dynamic linear models based on state space prior and known demographic information from National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data. In order to evaluate the accuracy of estimates, we compare our estimates with conventional estimates.