After the flood: the advantages of demographic change - Fewer, older, smarter, and healthier?

Population aging is an inevitable global demographic process. Most of the literature on the consequences of demographic change focuses on the challenges that economies and societies will face as people live longer and have fewer children. In this paper, we (a) describe key trends and projections of the magnitude and speed of population aging, (b) review the literature on the economic, social and environmental consequences of population aging, and (c) investigate the opportunities that aging societies create. We argue that there are relevant positive unintended consequences of population aging that can be leveraged to address pressing environmental problems, and issues of gender inequality and intergenerational ties.

Will population decline and aging lead to less pollution, and environmental damage? Will expenditures for the young and old balance if huge private downward transfers (bequests) are taken into account? Will the younger generations increase the time spent caring for the elderly and receive higher transfers from the older generations? Will the increasing share of individuals proceeding to tertiary education boost economic growth? We address these questions using a wide range of data including National Transfer Accounts, projections of CO2 emissions, labor force by educational attainment, and time transfers.