First Births in Europe: Socio-economic Differentials in the Effect of Economic and Institutonal Contexts over the Life-course.

Postponement of parenthood contributed heavily to the emergence of subreplacement fertility in Europe in the 1980s and 1990s. Recuperation of fertility has gained importance in determining period fertility levels and is associated with policies that reduce the opportunity costs of fertility and support dual earners in combining work and family. We use data from the European Social Survey to assess the impact of economic and policy contexts on first birth hazards of men and women in 14 EU countries between 1970 and 2005. Using multilevel discrete-time hazard models, we focus on differential effects of these contextual factors by age, gender and socio-economic position. Results show that adverse economic conditions significantly reduce first birth hazards of both men and women below age 30, with effect being more pronounced among the higher educated. After age 30, family policies contribute to the recuperation of fertility but the effects vary by socio-economic groups.