Population—Family Structure and Buildings’ Carbon Emissions in China

China’s population structure is undergoing profound changes. Based on the simulation calculation in this paper, the average family scales decrease from 3.10 people in 2010 to 2.44 people in 2030. The number of people in 20-40yrs falls from 473 million to 356 million. And the urbanization rate will be decreasing to 64.1% from 49.95% in 2010. The changes in population structure play a significant role in building demand and relevant energy consumption.
In 2010, the average residential area per person is 32.8 m2, which is close to the level of developed countries in Europe and Japan. If there is a balanced house ownership, present total residences can satisfy residents’ demand. The current problem is there is great difference in house ownership and there is frequent demolishment to increase GDP. If it would go in the current way, by 2030, the average residential area per person would exceed 55 square meters, which is over demand. What is more, the energy consumption of China’s building life cycle will exceed the total social energy consumption in 2010, leading to serious energy waste and environmental pollution.