Estimation of the reduction of gaps in child mortality. A methodological proposal applied to Latin American countries

Latin American has come a long a long way in reducing child mortality in during the last 60 years, decreasing, as a region, from a Q(5) [probability of dying before age 5] of 191 per thousand in 1950 to 31 per thousand nowadays, according to the latest estimations by CELADE-ECLAC. However, there is evidence of unequal decrease among countries.
As well as differences observed in the decrease rhythm among countries, there are significant differences within countries by regions or by socioeconomic conditions. In this paper, the researchers use census microdata from two Latin American countries (Mexico and Brazil), from the 1980, 1990 and 2000 census rounds, with the aim of estimating a model describing the gap trend in Q(5) by years of study of the mother. Using the estimated model, projections are made for gaps up to the latest census (2010 round) and achievements are evaluated, in terms of gap reduction, establishing whether the rhythm followed the expected trend, whether the rhythm was faster or whether a stalling is observed. Inferences can be made on the gaps evolution comparing population groups, as well as the validity of the variable used to measure more or less vulnerable groups regarding child mortality.