Allegiance and alliance: low fertility in the long shadow of WWII

Viewing comparative fertility trends through a prism of World War II (WWII) alliances, an odd pattern emerges. The members of the Tripartite Pact—Italy, Germany, and Japan—have among the lowest fertility rates in the world, while the countries that led the Allies at the end of World War II—Great Britain, the USA, and France—are outliers for their high fertility. This paper first argues that the association is not mere coincidence, but the product of specific cultural and institutional formations that emerged after the war. How could wartime alliances half a century ago influence contemporary fertility? What social, cultural, and institutional forces and processes account for these remarkable differences? And what do those forces and processes imply for theories of fertility more generally? This paper uses long-term national fertility trends to address these broader questions. We argue that many of the economic and cultural factors most critical to fertility rates have deep political roots. A coherent model of low fertility must be embedded in a comprehensive theory of social action. Social action, in turn, entails allegiances and alliances, both individual and collective.