Socioeconomic and Cultural Determinants on the Lowest-low Fertility of the Islands in China: the Case of Shengsi Island

With the process of fertility decline in the whole country, the islands in China have witnessed below-replacement fertility since more than two decades ago, and are in the lowest-low level of TFR by now. Taking Shengsi Island as a case, the paper analyzes how socioeconomic and cultural factors lead to lowest-low fertility in Shengsi Island. GWR model analysis and the correlation matrix of all variable will be applied in the analysis. Seven socioeconomic variables and three cultural variables, which measure the differences in the strength of religious, political-ideological and linguistic sub-cultures in the regions, will be used. Expected findings: First, cultural factors may have larger impact on the lowest-low fertility in Shengsi Island than that of socioeconomic factors. Second, one of the most significant cultural factors may be the great influence of Shanghai’s culture caused by the vicinity to Shanghai and the shared language with Shanghai. Religious belief and party participation might also affect the lowest-low fertility. Moreover, though the direct influence of socioeconomic variables on fertility is possibly less than that of cultural variables, such socioeconomic variables as fishing production and education may have appreciable impact on the lowest-low fertility and the formation of new fertility culture.