The Effect of a Regional Tax and Family Benefit Reform on Fertility in the Norwegian Arctic

This paper studies the effect on fertility of a series of three regional reforms, implemented 1988-1990, that changed the budget constraints of families in the northernmost parts of Norway compared to similar families in the rest of the country. The quasi-experimental nature of this policy change allows us to examine how exogenous variation in disposable income and the cost of childbearing affects fertility rates. In other words, we will compare the difference in fertility-related outcomes before and after the policy change (reform) in the affected regions with the same outcomes before and after 1989 for unaffected regions of the country. Individual-level multivariate analysis suggests that the reform did not have a causal effect on fertility.