Health Vulnerability Assessment of Heat waves in Korea

Background: Heat waves are known to be associated with increases in mortality and the burden of heat-related illness in population. However, there is limited regional information available to guide the public health adaptation plan. Therefore, regional health vulnerability of heat waves is assessed.

Methods: Vulnerability index (VRI) are calculated and mapped for Korean peninsula from 2000s to 2100s, applying SRES A1B scenario. The contribution analyses of VRI were performed to grasp attributable variables.

Results: Climate change vulnerabilities related to heat waves showed large regional variations. Contribution of three components, climate change exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, were 0.28, 0.28 and 0.33, respectively. Overall vulnerability is predicted to be increasing over time. It varies by regions, however currently vulnerable areas appear to stay or be more vulnerable in the future. Vulnerable areas are mostly distributed southern part of Korea in 2000s, and tend to be gradually moving northward in the future.

Conclusions: Mapping of VRI visualizes the locations of relatively vulnerable regions for better monitoring of climate impact, sensitive socio-demographic characteristics subpopulations, and adaptive capacity such as healthcare access conditions.