Ethnic differentials in effects of the 1st marriage and marital fertility on below-replacement fertility in Singapore, 1980-2010: A lifetable analysis

We examines changes in nuptiality and marital fertility as determinants for fertility changes in Singapore for 1980-2010. Singapore has drawn demographers' attentions for intensive population control policies and their effects on fertility. One of the most frequently mentioned policy interventions is a promotion of marriage and its distinct effects by education attainment levels. Ethnic differentials of fertility are also argued as an extent that Chinese females are relatively better educated. Nevertheless, there are few studies directly analyzing either an effect of nuptiality on fertility changes or its ethnic differentials, partly because of a limited data availability.
We estimates multistate lifetables of the 1st marriage and parity specific childbirths by ethnic group each year for 1980-2010 with an efficient use of limited data. Then, we decompose the effects of nuptiality and marital fertility on completed fertility measures constructed from the lifetales. Decomposition results uncover ethnic differentials and similarities: for overall fertility changes for 1980-2010, nuptiality accounted completely for Malay's fertility changes, while both nuptiality and marital fertility affected Chinese fertility; negative nuptiality effects have increasingly impacts both on Malay's and Chinese fertilities in recent years.