Women's participation in the labor force not education is the determining factor in achieving further reduction in fertility: Case of Egypt

Egypt has experienced a remarkable decline in its TFR from 5.3 children per woman to 3 in 2008. Since late 1990s, however, fertility is stalled. Recent data, EDHS 2008, show that for women of every age group the mean ideal number of children is persistently above two children. This article focuses on identifying the plausible factors that are likely to influence women's ability to achieve their desire of two children using multivariate logistic models and estimating their net impact. Furthermore, it examines the level of consistency among women who have, contrary to the average norm, desired two children and studies the profile of those who succeeded in fulfilling their desires. The study provides evidence that Expanding educational opportunities is necessary to reduce fertility level from its high level. However, our study have found that expanding women's educational opportunities is not enough to achieve further reduction during this transitional stage, it should be coupled with the following three important factors; 1) rising age at marriage, 2) increasing women’s participation in the formal labor market by which the costs of motherhood will be high, and 3) improving quality of health services to rise chances for child survival by which families are in no need to have extra children to compensate for child loss.