Trend analysis of mortality due to homicides in Mexico between 2000 and 2010

Objective: Given the recent increase of violence in Mexico we want to analyze the levels, trends and impact of mortality due to homicides between 2000 and 2010, at a national and state level. Material and Methods: Homicide mortality statistics from Mexico’s INEGI were used. We calculated the standardized mortality rates and the years of life lost (YLL) proposed by Arriaga between 15 and 49 years of age using an assumption of no mortality between the selected ages. Results: Between 2000 and 2007, a decreasing trend for the national mortality rates was observed (10.8 to 8.2 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants respectively); the same was presented with the YLL (a decrease of 23.95%). But in the last three years (2008-2010) the incidence of homicides increased significantly, reflected in both mortality rates (a 180.23% increase) and YLL (causing a decrease of 0.17 years in the national temporary life expectancy). Discussion: Mortality due to homicides has increased significantly in Mexico in recent years; this after a period of a continued decline in mortality for this cause at the beginning of the decade. However, these results don’t imply that violence is a generalized problem, given that we show that it concentrates mainly in some states.