Are late-entry-into-motherhood women responsible for fertility recuperation? An application of a demographic portrait

The idea of fertility recuperation emerged when demographers found that higher average age at first child (AFC) was not predicting lower completed fertility anymore. A common demographic portrayal of fertility recuperation is the comparison of age-specific fertility rates between two consecutive cohorts, which typically shows a “catching-up” dynamic. But that portrayal is mostly qualitative and does not define clear measures of postponing and recuperating. It does not tell, for example, whether recuperation is due to an increase of fertility among late AFC women, or is due to women of any AFC increasing their fertility. In both cases the “catching up” dynamics will be the same. This article A) elaborates on a quantitative portrait of fertility recuperation, based on AFC-conditional fertility rates, and B) performs an empirical application using European survey data, where it is found that cohorts where recuperation is first found are characterized by higher fertility of late AFC women; these women, in fact, entirely explain the appearance of the recuperation.