Below Replacement Fertility Level in Indonesia A case study in DI. Yogyakarta Province: Causes, consequences and policy responses

Indonesia is experiencing a rapid decline of its total fertility rate (TFR) over the last five decades. Adopting a strong anti natalist policy since 1970s with different time settings allows markedly variation in the level of TFR among provinces. Among Java-Bali provinces, three provinces (DI. Yogyakarta, DKI. Jakarta and East Java) reached replacement level in 1991, followed by Bali (1994) and Central Java (2003). Unlike DKI Jakarta and East Java where the fertility rate slightly fluctuates, DI. Yogyakarta indicates a consistent declining and halves the size in 2007 at 1.5. Limited studies on a persistent trend of reaching fertility at well below replacement level in Indonesia brings this paper aiming to look at the dynamic and contextual factors of fertility reduction in DI. Yogyakarta by using a series of Indonesia population census and IDHS 2003 & 2007. The result confirms that higher level of women education and women in labor force, delayed women age at first marriage, higher median age at first birth and longer birth spacing exert as major predicting factors. Like many other developed countries, voluntarily childlessness is also appearing. Having no spatial population policy and measures, some appropriate recommendations are deliberately discussed and proposed.