A Study on Developing Model Estimating Total Fertility Rate of Korea with a Focus on the First Marriage Rate

Coupled with the population ageing, the continued trends of low fertility (TFR below 1.2) is seen as one of main causes of social problems associated with economic downturn, unstable employment, labor shortage, and the expansion of welfare spending. Studies found that recently trends in childbearing in Korea are associated with changes in marriage pattern such as delay and avoidance of marriage among young Korean women. However, policies aimed at boosting child-bearing are somewhat fragmented. In this regard, it is urgent and inevitable that policy-makers understand the nature and causes of underlying social problems related to low fertility of Korea. This study aimed at developing a model for estimating fertility rates for Korea under some conditions. Unlike previous studies that were interested in forecasting TFR only, this study’s applied the Generalized log-gamma Distribution Model to predict fertility rate in association with the first marriage in that way, the fertility rate will be estimated with more logical and reasonable accuracy. The model is expected to provide the basic information for establishing and evaluating polices in prompt and adequate response to low fertility and population ageing.