What would happen if Turkey followed its Prime Minister’s proposition to have “at least three children”: Population projections till 2050 with alternative fertility scenarios

Turkey has gone through major fertility decline since 1960s. The TFR declined from around 7 to replacement level today; faster than predicted by earlier projections. Population policies also changed during this process: Antinatalist policies replaced pronatalist ones, with growing emphasis on reproductive health. Today, as a candidate member to EU, Turkey is maybe a decade away from becoming the most populous country of Europe. However, Turkey’s current prime minister has been explicitly suggesting that couples have at least three children in the recent years. The argument is based on the idea that Turkey’s population is ageing, and will be similar to European populations today; and that this would put Turkey in the risk of economic stress in the upcoming decades. Thus we aimed to discuss whether a “three children policy” was the answer to Turkey’s ageing problem. We came up with different scenarios of fertility change and projected populations accordingly. Preliminary findings showed that although an increased TFR would help maintain a lower elderly dependency ratio, the actual population of elderly would still require extensive planning. Furthermore, child dependency ratios would be increase, putting more pressure on the working population. We lean towards alternative solutions to the ageing problem.