Population prospects of Kazakhstan till 2030

Population change affects national income, national expenditure, and the demand for services such as education, health and transport. Therefore, information about future population size and structure obtained with the help of population forecasts, which can be used for a wide range of decision-making purposes, is of paramount importance. The primary aim of this paper is to produce three different types of population forecasts for Kazakhstan till 2030 and by comparing and analysing the differences to find out the most important factors determining the population development process in the country. Kazakhstan is a country with significant size and regional diversity which makes it relevant to consider those dimensions in population forecasting. Most southern oblasts of the country have a young population structure meaning that much of future population growth, particularly of working age, will come from these regions. Also, native population tends to concentrate in rural areas, while industrialized cities are mostly populated by non-natives with considerably different nuptiality and fertility behaviour. Despite such regional and residential demographic differences, presently the country is experiencing an overall increase in birth rates. The question is, how long will last this favorable fertility situation.