Economic Transformation and Changes in Determinants of Marriage Formation: Evidence from Urban China

Using national survey data and city-year-specific indicators, I examine the effect of demographic and institutional determinants of individual marriage in urban China spanning 60 years. A growth in importance of economic prospect has been observed during the rapid economic development in China. In addition, evidence of cohort changes indicates that the positive effect of working in the state-owned sector on marriage formation decreases, which reflects the marketization in China during recent decades. Capitalizing on the house reform in urban China, I find that the effects of education on marital behavior varied with the levels of house price. Specifically, higher education is associated with larger probability of entering marriage when the house price is relatively high; in contrast, education has a marriage-delaying effect in the cities with relatively low house price. Taken together, these results suggest that the determinants of marriage should be understood by taking the institutional changes into account.