The Universal Provision of Primary Education: Who Benefits?

Compulsory education policy has been widely used by economists to estimate the causal impacts of education on various outcomes. However, few have investigated the spillover effects of compulsory education on children’s siblings within a family. Using a regression discontinuity method and Hong Kong Census Data, I found that Hong Kong’s 1971 policy on free, compulsory primary education reduced the probability of early dropout by approximately 8% by age 12. The effect is substantial considering that approximately 90% of primary-school-age children were already in school in Hong Kong when the policy was implemented. The 1971 policy also reduced the probability of early dropout for the oldest brother (a 3% reduction in the dropout rate by age 12) and the oldest sister (a 5% reduction by age 12 and a 4% reduction by age 15). The impacts were larger for children in low-income families. Further, having younger brothers who benefited from free compulsory primary education did not seem to affect the oldest child’s educational attainment. However, having younger sisters who benefited from the compulsory education policy increased the educational attainment for the oldest child in the family, especially for the oldest sister.