Systematic Change of Signs in Macro Patterns of Fertility: Understanding the Low Fertility Path of some OECD-Countries

Macro data approaches analyse fertility with different research designs: They use different country groups, time periods and sets of variables. The results depend strongly on the comprehensiveness of the research design. The change of correlation signs between fertility and some determinants occurring in the 1980ies (Ahn/Mira 2002; Castles 2003) is crucial for understanding paths to low fertility in some OECD-countries. However, the knowledge about this phenomenon is still limited. Recent explanations have stressed advances in development (Myrskylä/Billari/Kohler 2009) or the relation of diffusion and adaptation effects (Bujard 2011). Also, gender-related institutions (McDonald 2002) or cultural change (Lesthaeghe 2011) offer explanations.
This paper aims to shed light on the interaction of cultural, economic, institutional and policy determinants of fertility in a long-term perspective by using cross-sectional and changing rate regressions. Why do correlation signs change for such a large number of fertility determinants, and why so fast? Given several interactions between these factors, what is the hidden hand behind these changing relations? The empirical findings of this study allow for an understanding of long-term fertility development; based on this, an integrated theory of fertility in OECD countries will be developed.