Fertility increase in Central Asia: Why, how?

After a swift decline during the 1990s related to the collapse of the Soviet Union, fertility has been stagnating and/or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. So far, this issue has not been the subject of strong interest from demographers. In this study, I investigate different hypotheses contributing to understand better the recent changes in the region: data artifacts (improvement in vital registration (VR) system), population composition effect, and economic context. The comparison of fertility data from the VR with other estimates from other data sources and/or estimation methods gives confidence that the recent changes are real and that the data artifact hypothesis can be ruled out. The most plausible explanations are to be found in the population composition effect and the economic context. As fertility patterns differ between ethnic groups, the out-migration of large portions of specific ethnic groups influences ultimately the course of fertility at the country level. Further, the effect of the diverse economic fortunes among Central Asian countries is as well considered as a possible factor contributing to the recent fertility trends in the region.