Recent innovative ideas in population and fertility projections: An evaluation

During the past 10-15 years a number of papers have surfaced that propose new methods for projecting populations and fertility. Given the wide array of such projections, it appears that the time is right to step back and take stock of the ‘state of the art’ and to critically evaluate the relative contributions of each method. We will analyse these new methodologies and attempt to provide an objective evaluation of their contributions to improving the utility of population and fertility forecasting. In this vein, we critically evaluate at least nine new publications which have driven forward the frontiers of population forecasting using a set of objective criteria for evaluating fertility and population projections which we will design. The main criterion that we are proposing to judge whether a new fertility or population projection method is an improvement, is whether it utilizes research that has revealed a heretofore unknown or not well understood mechanism influencing a fertility status or trend, or a new mechanism influencing population change. The paper will conclude with an overview of the type of fertility and population projections needed or requested by different types of users and an evaluation of whether the supply meets the demand.