Trends and Magnitude of Net International Migration in the Arab Countries 1980-2025: Effects on Dependency Burden and Population Ageing

The present paper examines the trends in net international migration rates (NIMRs) in 22 members of the League of Arab states, during 1980-2025. The study uses medium variant population estimates and projections from the recent revision of the World Population Prospects 2010 – released by the UN on May 3, 2011. For the purpose of the analysis, 22 Arab countries have been classified in four groups, namely, Mashreq, Maghreb, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Least Developed Countries, on the basis of their geographical proximity and socioeconomic characteristics. The magnitude of NIMR (per 1000 of country’s population) and its direction for each Arab state have been presented. Negative sign of NIMRs shows out-migrating country and vice versa. The magnitude and sign of NIMRs have been assumed to give proxy measure of the level of country’s economic development/ underdevelopment since more unskilled and semiskilled labourers out-migrate from economically underdeveloped countries due to less employment opportunities and/or lower wages. The magnitude and direction of NIMRs have been explained in the backdrop of political situation of the country. The study also discusses the effects of high emigrations from working age-groups and soaring in-migrations of 65+ populations on young and old dependency burdens and population ageing.