Forecasting the Probability of Progression to the Secondary Education Level for Brazil: An Age-Period-Cohort Approach using the Intrinsic Estimator

This paper aims to forecast the probability of progression to the secondary education level for Brazilian men and women aged 25-59. The authors used an age-period-cohort model and a time-series approach to model and forecast future trends in period and cohort effects. To account for uncertainty, this study utilized a scenario approach. The authors carried out separate models for males and females in order to account to sex differentials in the progression probability. Data were selected from the National Household Survey in Brazil (PNAD), which offers nationally representative data from 1981 to 2011. This study concludes that there will be improvements in this indicator for both men and women, and that the rate of improvement will be higher for older adults because they start at a lower probability level. Also, these results show that the probability of progression to the secondary education level is slightly lower for men, even though both men and women will experience improvements in this indicator.