A moveable feast? The flexibility of fertility preferences in a transitioning Malawian community

Recent studies suggest a rapid change in fertility preferences among young adults across sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of Malawians’ fertility preferences to a variety of hypothetical (but common) events that may alter fertility preferences and intentions. Using new data from the Tsogolo la Thanzi (TLT) study in southern Malawi, we analyze expected changes in desired number of children (quantum) and the pace of childbearing (tempo) in response to this variety of events. We further employ the Coombs scale, a measure of underlying family size preferences, to predict the direction of both dimensions of fertility preferences. To measure tempo change, the survey questions respondents about their preferred timing to next birth. We find 1) that both the quantum and tempo dimensions of fertility preferences are most responsive to AIDS-related conditions and 2) that young adults’ preferences are relatively impervious to changing economic conditions and family issues. Our results indicate that the generalized AIDS epidemic in Malawi is critically important for understanding young people’s fertility preferences and, ultimately, their behaviors.