War and Contraceptive Use Dynamics in Iraq

Since the mid-1990s, the humanitarian community has expressed increasing concern for the reproductive health needs of conflict-affected populations, including access to contraceptive information and services. Yet, empirical research on the reproductive health consequences of armed conflicts has remained relatively scarce, mainly due to a shortage of reliable data.
This paper represents the first attempt to examine the effect of the recent war in Iraq on contraceptive use dynamics. The analysis relies on pooled data from the 2000 and 2006 Iraq Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (I-MICS). A difference-in-differences approach is used to assess changes in contraceptive use before and after the onset of war across governorates with different levels of conflict intensity. From 2000 to 2006, the probability of contraceptive use increased by 19% among women in the Kurdish region, and by 14% among those in the Southern governorates of the country that were only mildly affected by the conflict. However, the probability of contraceptive use stalled among women in the governorates with a high level of conflict intensity, including Baghdad, and dropped by 10% among those in the most conflict-affected governorate of Anbar. The paper addresses possible reasons for these diverging trends and discusses their policy implications.