Future development challenges in Mongolia: Multi-state population projections by age, sex, and education

In this paper, the future development challenges in Mongolia are investigated through the application of multistate population projections by age, sex, and education. The present situation of the country is interesting on many aspects and its population development contrasts with what is observed elsewhere in East Asia. As the result of a very swift fertility decline in the early 1990s, the country is opening its demographic window of opportunity. Further, Mongolia became nowadays the fastest growing economy in Asia thanks to the recent exploitation of its mining resources. Yet, these favorable factors may be hindered by a series of challenges. On the demographic side, the fertility has increased by about 0.6-0.7 children since its nadir in 2005 to 2.61 children per woman in 2011. By introducing sudden shocks in the age structural transition, this fertility increase bears a series of challenges for the planning of the national development. Whether Mongolia can set the most appropriate conditions to benefit from its current economic boom remains an open question. Based on different assumptions on the future course of fertility and education in the country, the implications and challenges for development of the future population composition of Mongolia are discussed.