Understanding Asian Fertility Decline in a Region-Specific Context: Fertility Decline and its Implication for Population Aging in the Four Asian Tiger Countries

This paper investigates patterns of fertility decline in the four Asian Tiger countries with newly industrialized economies (NIEs) - Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan; and empirically test the relative importance of fertility decline and immigration on population aging. This paper contributes to the understanding of fertility decline in these four countries in the context of prominent demographic theoretical frameworks of fertility decline. Furthermore, drawing from emerging literature on the cause and consequences of “ultra-low” fertility in these countries, I aim to provide a comprehensive theoretical framework to better understand the fertility decline in these four countries in region-specific context rather than through convergence to the West paradigm. In addition, using the cohort-component population projection method, I test the effects of fertility decline and immigration on population aging. Findings suggest fertility decline in these four countries is a complex process that requires a comprehensive theoretical framework. In addition, fertility decline has a greater impact than immigration on population aging; and there is the need to focus on public policy to address the low fertility rather than immigration in these countries.