ARMED CONFLICT, UNDER-FIVE MORTALITY AND FERTILITY IN MOZAMBIQUE AND RWANDA: WHAT CAN CENSUSES TELL US?

Conflict and civil war are part of African history. First, was the resistance to colonization and the armed struggles that led to the independence of many African countries in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. Second, after their independences many African countries have been involved in civil wars, mainly rooted in ideological and political contradictions, and ethno-regional frictions. Beside the economic, political and social consequences, these conflicts have affected the demographic outcome through disruption of people’s lives due to large-scale property destruction, looting and forced migration and famine. Studies worldwide have shown that in wartime mortality may increase because of direct civilian killings and increase in preventable diseases due to disruption of health and transportation systems. Fertility may experience drops during wartime and rebounds in a post-war period due to delayed marriage and spousal separation during the wartime. This paper applies indirect estimation techniques on pre- and post conflict census data, under-five mortality and fertility changes that may be related to conflict in Mozambique and Rwanda. The analysis shows that in both Mozambique and Rwanda population growth, fertility and under-five mortality were affected by the conflict, but the nature, duration and characteristics of the conflict.