Prediction Total Fertility Rate in Iran up to 2025 Based on Inglehart’s Theory and Economic Scenarios

Total fertility rate as a social parameter affects by different economic, social, cultural and institutional factors. Inglehart’s theory of cultural change explains and theorizes social changes sourced economically within a time process.
The main goal of this study is to examine Inglehart’s theory of cultural change in terms of rising trance material values, adopted by effect of economic indices on total fertility rate, by modeling and expecting total fertility rate up to 2025, based on four economic variables: GDP growth, gross saving, consumption price index and GDP per capita growth, and four social indices including: life expectancy at birth, total fertility rate, literacy level of total population and +25. Within three economic scenarios: continuing current trend, subsidize law and achieving 2025 vision goals.
The used data of socio-economic indices were worked out from Statistics of World Bank and Statistical Center of Iran.
Methodology of this study was based on Neurotic Net Work ( that named GMDH algorithm).In this study, we put selected variables affected on fertility change in Iran in the model and then predicted total fertility rate for 5 years periods up to 2025.
Based on three scenarios total fertility rate will reach to 1.34, 1.33 and 1.29 in 2025.