The Interaction of Demographic Processes in the Spanish Provinces, 1858-2010: An Event-Centered Approach

The interaction of migration with fertility and mortality is key for demographic dynamics at subnational and local levels. Despite this, standard measures of mortality and reproduction treat migration only as a nuisance to be removed, without ever assessing the extent to which processes are affected by migration. Indicators of replacement that incorporate the effect of migration like the Birth Replacement Ratio, have the limitation of not being defined at the age-specific level. We estimate new cohort and period measures of mortality and reproduction that include the interaction with migration for the set of Spanish provinces in the period 1858-2010. The new measures only require vital registration data classified by age, and provide age-specific estimates that incorporate the effects of migration. When migration is low, the measures can be regarded as indirect estimates of mortality and reproduction that do not require population denominators. When migration is high, they should be regarded as the results of the interaction of demographic processes in that particular population. Given the large provincial contrasts in fertility, mortality and migration, it is possible to characterize the role of migration patterns in the vital events registered in the provinces over a period that covers most of demographic transition.