Linking demographic change and the advancement of democracy: evidence from 140 countries in 1950-2010

The paper studies associations between population development and democratisation process. Political science has found links between democratisation and socio-economic development, but population development's role has been studied much less extensively. There are virtually no studies focusing on the relationship between demographic variables and the dynamics of political regimes in the contemporary world. This paper suggests that demographic variables capturing the spread of individualisation in society can be used to explain the strengthening of democratic rule. Our hypothesis is guided by an idea about fertility decline as a part of a broader emancipation process, driven by increasing centrality of individual's autonomy which encompasses both political and family domains. We assume that in the absence of direct measures, demographic variables can provide a useful account of the individuality dimension. The study applies macro-level approach. Level of democracy in a country, measured by Polity IV rating system, is modelled against demographic and socio-economic variables. We find associations between TFR and democracy index that suggest using demographic indicators as measure of readiness for democracy together with economic variables.